Ashfield: a chink in New Labour's armour?

Cavalcade in Geoff Hoon's Constituency

Saturday 30th April 9.15 am
Kirkby-in-Ashfield & Sutton-in-Ashfield

A Cavalcade will stop off at locations in the area campaigning under the slogan Don't Vote for Warmongers!.

Ray Hewitt, Gulf War veteran and Reservist refusenik (from Military Families Against the War) will be with us.

The programme for Saturday, 30 April is as follows:

You are urged to join in where and when you can.

09:15am: Cavalcade gathers in the Park and Ride car park on the Forest Recreation Ground (near the tram stop). Bring your car if you can. If you want a lift in someone else’s, please let us know.

10:00am: Cavalcade arrives outside Minister of Defence Geoff Hoon’s office in Kirkby-in-Ashfield (to talk to him).

10:30am: Cavalcade arrives at Kirkby-in-Ashfield Shopping Centre for leafleting.

11:15am: Cavalcade arrives at Sutton-in-Ashfield Shopping Centre for leafleting.

NB Please use multimap.com to find Kirkby and Sutton, Hoon thinks he's safe in the backwoods!

Plenty of anti-Hoon material at
 http://web.onetel.com/~micquael/TheBuffFolder

click through the photo on "Hoon Authorised Dirty War in Iraq" page for your genuine a4 printable version.

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WHY?
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Ashfield: a chink in New Labour's armour?

Turnout and Hoon's proportion of the vote fell between 1997 and 2001

Interpreting from the Local Council Election in 2001 where independents took an inordinate number of seats (there have subsequently been 2 defections to Labour) seems to hint that the Labour vote is dropping to the extent that this seat may not be so safe as to be comfortable for a Cabinet Minister.

ASHFIELD CONSTITUENCY

General Election 1997

Labour 32979 65%
The Rest 17624 35%


General Election 2001

Labour 22875 58%
The Rest 16475 42%


Ashfield District Council Elections (except Hucknall which is in Sherwood constituency) 2003

People voting for each party (party vote / number of votes per elector in their particular ward)

people % of those
voting voting

Labour 4528 46%

Independent 4601 47%

Green 759 8%
____
Bothered 2 Vote 9888 101% (due to rounding up/down)

Labour unopposed in
SUTTON IN ASHFIELD CENTRAL
SUTTON IN ASHFIELD NORTH
UNDERWOOD


So the record since 1997 is of a diminishing turnout and a shrinking Labour vote with a shift to independentism. This is reflected in at least two of the candidates for 2005.

The hats are now in the ring and we have

Sarah Hemstock, the Kilroyist, will lose deposit

Eddie Grenfell, wants WW2 medal for a few old blokes[1], will lose deposit

Wendy Johnson, Liberal Democrat, bog standard LDP, should keep deposit and be pleased with 3rd place.

Then the Ashfeldians have the choice of three, yes THREE tories

Hoon himself, the likely winner, there is a core Labour vote, particularly in Sutton, none of whom know the name of their MP but votes Labour because it's there. Never underestimate the stupidity of most of the electorate.

Giles Ingis-Jones, fat rich and posh, ex guards; but no mention of rank in his blurb so never got many pips on his shoulders. Although the probable beneficiary of an effective "Sack Geoff" movement - he's new, stupid and (cf Hoon) harmless. One more Tory is not going to make any difference at Westminster.

Kate Allsop, billed as an Independendent, she is actually an ex Tory councillor from Mansfield

And finally the dark horse
Roy Adkins, arch independent on Ashfield council. Has the advantage of being at the top of the ballot paper. Most commendably got into trouble for using the word 'crap' in a council debate [2]. Lives in the consituency so most able to shake the most hands. He will probably see his deposit money back, but an outsider to unseat Geoff.

[1] I don't in any way mean to be cynical about Eddies efforts, my late stepfather found himself in the Arctic Seas in WW2. Only ever once alluded to it, he was helping me through a period of severe clinical depression -- and he knew from this WW2 experience what to do. FWIW I'd be a little insulted if a posthumous bit of tin turned up in the post -- a handwritten apology by Churchill's successor would be more like [end rant].

[2] "Crap", can't see a problem, but shows how weird people can be.